Sunday, February 21, 2010


Many have dismissed Dr. Igor Panarin’s prediction that the United States would disintegrate into six “republics” as absurd and baseless.

His theory reportedly has wide following in the Russian government, including Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, because it bolsters their belief they are superior to the Americans.

Lawyer-accountant Leo Canseco pointed me to Panarin about two years ago.

His views were obviously overstretched, hardly founded on objective reality, and yet I was curious on how they could play out in the intricate dynamics of American racial relations, politics and economic crisis.

Panarin was trained in psychology by the KGB and earned his doctorate in political science from the Russian Academy of Public Administration in 1997.
His areas of specialization are “strategic analysis, information stream management and situation modeling of global processes”.

“I’ve studied the history of the United States and my conclusion is that it has no future,” he said in a March 2009 speech in Manila.

Panarin’s vision of a reconfigured America comprise of a “California Republic” that stretches all the way to Utah and Idaho that falls under the influence of China;

“Texas Republic” that extends as far Arkansas and Florida and falls under the influence of Mexico; “Atlantic America” that encompasses America’s northeastern states including Kentucky and Tennessee that falls under the influence of Britain or the European Union;

And opines that Alaska would revert to Russia. Hawaii falls under the sphere of either China or Japan.

Panarin told his audience in Manila last year that America’s collapse will be rooted in economic and political factors, particularly the growing mountain of debt.

“They have created in the United States a pyramid based on the dollar and they see no other way to solve this crisis,” he said.

Panarin discredited himself by predicting the disintegration should have started last autumn.

One might argue that could have been true if President Obama did not act.
The TARP and stimulus bill were expensive but necessary to rescue Wall Street and pump-prime the economy.

Still, Panarin pointed to other factors that remain sources of concern today – a declining GDP, burgeoning budget deficit and high unemployment.

The budget deficit is projected to reach $2.7 trillion in the next two years. By 2015, it will reach a whopping $4.3 trillion; and in ten years cumulative deficit will hit $8.5 trillion.

The US paid about $383 billion in interest alone for debts in 2009; by 2019, it’s estimated to reach $700 billion a year.

There is legislative gridlock over healthcare reforms, balancing the budget, jobs creation, immigration reforms, etc.

“It has suddenly become clear that the United States is in the throes of a political crisis of historic dimensions.

“There seems to be no obvious explanation for the ferocity of the political struggle between the Democrats and Republicans.

“The present crisis must arise from causes that are of a far more fundamental character. The conflict in Washington must, in the final analysis, reflect deep-rooted conflicts within American society as a whole.”

Those words were written in December 1998 about the political climate surrounding President Clinton’s impeachment.

They sounded so descriptive of what’s happening today.

Ron Fournier of the Associated Press assailed how both Republican and Democratic leaders appear to fudge the truth for political expediency.

“Such distortion and dishonesty cause Americans to be increasingly skeptical of their political institutions and leaders. Once people lose faith in the political system, they’re less likely to vote, less willing to pay taxes, less motivated to run for office themselves and – sociologist say, they’re even less likely to get involved in their own communities.”

Panarin’s prediction may have been discredited by actual events but why are some Americans giving it credence?

He was recently invited by the “Houston Tea Party Patriots” for a speaking engagement in Houston.

Some Americans have apparently found ideological refuge from an ex-KGB analyst’s view of a doomed USA to project their own paranoia and fears.

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