Tuesday, May 1, 2012
PHILIPPINES THE NEXT 'BREAKOUT NATION'?
is one of three Asian countries poised for an economic “breakout” according to
a new book written by Morgan Stanley emerging market guru Ruchir Sharma.
He suggested that focusing too much on the BRIC countries –
India and China – the
stars of emerging markets in the last decade, is old news.
Sharma, head of emerging market equities and global macro at Morgan Stanley predicts that the next countries investors will flock to are
Poland and the Czech
Republic in Europe and the Philippines,
Indonesia, Thailand and Sri
Lanka in Asia.
Sharma urges investors to look closely at “break-out” nations.
“As an era of easy money and easy growth comes to a close,
particular will cool down,” the book description says.
“Other major players including
Russia, and India face
their own daunting challenges and inflated expectations. The new ‘breakout
nations’ will probably spring from the margins,” he predicts in his new book,
"Breakout Nations: In Pursuit of the Next Economic Miracles” (Norton
Books, 288 pages) that was released earlier this month.
and the Czech Republic are
the "sweet spots" in Europe.
His "breakout nations" picks in Asia are the
All three suffered a lot in the 1990s when China devalued its currency and
took away a lot of their manufacturing base.
"Now the opposite is happening.
currency is appreciating a lot and Chinese wage inflation is picking up. These
economies can benefit from the fact that their currencies are quite competitive
and we could see some manufacturing return to these economies, which are also
well run now," Sharma explained.
According to Kirkus Review, Sharma “offers informed speculation on why Russia’s Putin may have outlived his usefulness, why Sri Lanka, the Philippines, even Nigeria may finally be headed in the right direction, why Mexico continues to underperform, why the coming slowdown in China will feel like a recession and why Indonesia’s new “efficient corruption” counts as an improvement over the old way of doing business.
It’s a must-read for “investors looking to place their bets and for general readers looking to understand the global economic landscape in the wake of the Great Recession,” the critic continued.